Centralised demand information sharing - A Thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy

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dc.contributor.author Ali, Mohammad Mojiballah
dc.date.accessioned 2012-05-03T08:48:26Z
dc.date.available 2012-05-03T08:48:26Z
dc.date.issued 2012-05-03
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/239
dc.description.abstract This thesis explores Centralised Demand Information Sharing (CDIS) in supply chains. CDIS is an information sharing approach where supply chain members forecast based on the downstream member’s demand. The Bullwhip Effect is a demand variance amplification phenomenon: as the demand moves upstream in supply chains, its variability increases. Many papers in the literature show that, if supply chain members forecast using the less variable downstream member’s demand, this amplification can be reduced leading to a reduction in inventory cost. These papers, using strict model assumptions, discuss three demand information sharing approaches: No Information Sharing (NIS), Downstream Demand Inference (DDI) and Demand Information Sharing (DIS). The mathematical analysis in this stream of research is restricted to the Minimum Mean Squared Error (MMSE) forecasting method. A major motivation for this PhD research is to improve the above approaches, and assess those using less restrictive supply chain assumptions. In this research, apart from using the MMSE forecasting method, we also utilise two non-optimal forecasting methods, Simple Moving Averages (SMA) and Single Exponential Smoothing (SES). The reason for their inclusion is the empirical evidence of their high usage, familiarity and satisfaction in practice. We first fill some gaps in the literature by extending results on upstream demand translation for ARMA (p, q) processes to SMA and SES. Then, by using less restrictive assumptions, we show that the DDI approach is not feasible, while the NIS and DIS approaches can be improved. The two new improved approaches are No Information Sharing – Estimation (NIS-Est) and Centralised Demand Information Sharing (CDIS). It is argued in this thesis that if the supply chain strategy is not to share demand information, NIS-Est results in less inventory cost than NIS for an Order Up To policy. On the other hand, if the strategy is to share demand information, the CDIS approach may be used, resulting in lower inventory cost than DIS. These new approaches are then compared to the traditional approaches on theoretically generated data. NIS-Est improves on NIS, while CDIS improves on the DIS approach in terms of the bullwhip ratio, forecast error (as measured by Mean Squared Error), inventory holding and inventory cost. The results of simulation show that the performance of CDIS is the best among all four approaches in terms of these performance metrics. Finally, the empirical validity of the new approaches is assessed on weekly sales data of a European superstore. Empirical findings and theoretical results are consistent regarding the performance of CDIS. Thus, this research concludes that the inventory cost of an upstream member is reduced when their forecasts are based on a Centralised Demand Information Sharing (CDIS) approach. en_US
dc.subject Supply chains en_US
dc.subject Information sharing en_US
dc.subject Business and management en_US
dc.subject Centralised demand information sharing en_US
dc.subject CDIS en_US
dc.subject Bullwhip Effect en_US
dc.subject Inventory management en_US
dc.subject Downstream Demand Inference en_US
dc.subject Forecasting en_US
dc.title Centralised demand information sharing - A Thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy en_US
dc.type Thesis en_US

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